Shares of Vodafone Idea traded largely flat during the mid-trading session on Tuesday after rising nearly 2 per cent in early deals. The stock climbed to ₹10.12 on the National Stock Exchange compared with its previous close of ₹9.91, before giving up part of the gains amid range-bound trade.
Brokerage firm HDFC Securities, in its latest report, cited improving operating metrics and supportive regulatory developments. The brokerage recommended buying the stock at the current market price and adding on dips in the band of ₹8–9 for a fair value target of ₹12 over the next four quarters.
“For high-risk, long-term investors seeking meaningful exposure to India’s rapidly expanding telecom sector, the potential reduction in AGR dues — combined with VIL’s deeply depressed stock valuation — presents a compelling, albeit speculative, high-risk, high-reward entry point,” it added.
Risk-conscious investors should treat ₹5.70 as a clear red flag trigger for exit.
According to HDFC Securities, Vodafone Idea remains one of India’s largest telecom operators with nationwide presence across voice and data services. The brokerage noted that recent relief measures by the government on adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues have eased the company’s medium-term payment obligations, improving cash-flow visibility. It added that the conversion of a portion of spectrum liabilities into equity and regulatory support could support the company’s balance sheet.
The brokerage further highlighted that Vodafone Idea is undertaking an aggressive capital expenditure programme aimed at expanding 4G coverage and rolling out 5G services in priority circles. The company plans to invest ₹50,000–55,000 crore over the next three years to improve network quality, curb subscriber churn and drive revenue growth. HDFC Securities believes execution of these expansion plans could support subscriber additions and operational improvement.
Operationally, the brokerage said the company reported better-than-expected performance in the December quarter, supported by an improvement in average revenue per user and stable margins. It noted that rising data usage, tariff repair across the industry and gradual improvement in subscriber mix could aid revenue visibility over the medium term.
Key risks
However, HDFC Securities cautioned investors about several key risks. The brokerage said Vodafone Idea continues to lose market share following intense competition after the entry of Reliance Jio, leading to sustained pressure on subscriber additions and revenue generation. It also noted that while average revenue per user remains among the lowest in the industry, recent improvement has been driven largely by tariff hikes and upgrades in subscriber plans.
The brokerage further warned that any significant delay in tying up debt funding could disrupt the company’s planned capital expenditure cycle, which is crucial for improving network quality and reducing subscriber churn. It also flagged the continued overhang of high indebtedness linked to deferred spectrum liabilities and adjusted gross revenue dues payable to the Government of India, resulting in elevated leverage levels that remain a structural concern.
Published on March 10, 2026
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