Jefferies on RIL
Buy, TP Rs 1750
O2C is benefiting from ME supply disruptions that have led to a sharp jump in refining & petchem spreads
See elevated spreads sustaining over period of conflict and build higher margins in 1HFY27
Have lowered Jio’s FY27/28E Ebitda 10%/6% resp as delay tariff hike to Dec-26
Have raised consol Ebitda 2% for FY27 on O2C strength.
Stock trades 1 SD below LT avg suggesting limited downside amidst earnings support
MOSL on RIL
Buy, TP Rs 1750
Geopolitical disruptions tighten refining & petchem markets
Believe that even if tensions ease soon, supply chain normalization may lag, keeping product cracks elevated & supporting Cos refining-petchem margins.
See 8.5% upside to FY27 EBITDA if disruptions persist through 1HFY27
Further, petrochemical spreads could expand as supply disruptions lift product prices, while RILs’ diversified feedstock mix (only 30% naphtha) limits crude-linked cost pressures.
However, the re-introduction of export duties on fuels (similar to the Jul’22 SAED) could cap refining margins & limit upside to O2C earnings
JPM on Autos
Ongoing geopolitical conflict & rising commodity prices are creating dual risks of production disruptions and cost inflation for the Indian Auto industry
Specific risks/challenges are as follows:
1) Gas (LNG/LPG) shortages (see note here) could lead to production shutdowns/disruptions,
2) Potential disruptions to CNG availability at pumps could impact consumer preference for these vehicles,
3) Higher fuel and commodity costs could hurt margins,
4) Global shipping disruptions could impact exports,
5) Weakening consumer sentiment could hurt the recovery that we have seen post the GST cuts.
Mar-26 retail volumes remain strong at the moment.
While acknowledging these risks, note that Nifty Auto Index is down 12% YTD (vs. Nifty down 9.5%) with some stocks back to levels seen pre-GST cuts
Prefer MSIL, MM and HMCL due to a combination of relative growth visibility and valuation support.
Macquarie on Auto Sector
Macro uncertainty lends to growth risk
Mar-26 retail and production have held up well, until now
Focus now on earnings risks emanating from demand, margins
Have been constructive based on expectation of healthy demand and steady/improving margins
Given the growth uncertainty along with margin risk, now expect India auto stocks to underperform broad markets near term
CITI on Banks
Escalation of geopolitical tensions in Middle East has introduced a new layer of macro financial risk for the Indian banking sector.
Despite entering this juncture from a position of considerable strength —characterized by decade-low GNPAs and a robust CET-1 — sustained conflict could trigger some pressure across multiple transmission channels
Primary vulnerabilities include: elevated crude oil prices, disruption to trade flows, heightened currency and liquidity volatility, and a widening CAD.
Prolonged Middle East conflict could test resilience through cascading effects on asset quality, liquidity, market risk, and credit growth.
Positioning hierarchy: Private banks demonstrate superior defensive characteristics, followed by PSUs and NBFCs
Preferred picks: HDFCB, ICICIBC and RBK.
HSBC on Coal India
Hold, TP Raised to Rs 420
Higher gas and regional coal prices lift our E-auction premium and volume estimates
Raise FY27 EPS by c13% but keep FY28 earnings unchanged as fundamental issue of oversupply of domestic coal and weak thermal demand should drive premiums lower
Near-term stock outperformance due to Middle East situation, but should fade once gas supplies normalise
Nomura on Consumer
Energy consumption analysis show most Consumer cos have lower exposure to Gas as fuel & ones that do have multi-fuel facility & mitigating factors
Prefer companies that are executing better and for which risk-reward is favorable
Top picks: Britannia & Titan
Preferred picks: Marico, Tata Consumer, Godrej Consumer, Asian Paints & United Spirits
MOSL on VA Tech
Buy, TP Rs 1900
CO remains well-positioned for sustained growth, with regular order inflows and normal project execution in the Middle East despite current escalating tensions
Co has bagged >INR10b contract to refurbish a 45MLD TTRO plant in Chennai within a period of 18 months, followed by O&M work over a period of 18.5 years.
A robust order book of over INR163b (~5x FY25 revenue), preferred bidder in orders worth INR30b, and a strong bid pipeline of INR150-200b (30% win rate) provide strong 15-20% revenue growth visibility over the next 3-4 years
Est. a CAGR of 17%/22%/23% in revenue/EBITDA/PAT over FY25-28
Outlook for strong FCF generation, a net cash status (INR8.9b), & improving return ratios makes stk attractive at 18x/15x FY27E/28E P/E.
UBS on Eureka Forbes
Initiate Buy, TP Rs 640
Buy underpinned by four key drivers
1) Favourable top-down tailwinds place underpenetrated water purifier category (EFL’s largest revenue contributor, at 45%), at an inflection point.
2) EFL has stepped up investment in capex, R&D and product innovation, which could drive ~150bp market share gain in water purifiers in FY25-28E.
3) Scale-up of the highermargin service (annual maintenance) and filter businesses may drive 250bp margin expansion in FY25-28E.
4) Vacuum cleaners/air purifiers may have an 18% revenue CAGR in FY26-30E, led by low penetration
Forecast revenue/EBITDA CAGRs of 13%/22% in FY25-28
UBS on Food Delivery Cos
Receipts data suggests Feb’26 industry volumes +20-21% YoY
Feb’26 data shows
1) healthy growth trends in FD volume with industry growth sustaining above 20% YoY, however there could be an impact on March and April volumes due to the cooking gas supply shortage. 2) Stable market share so far in the first 2 months of Q4.
3) Blinkit widening the gap on QC reach vs Instamart and Zepto.
Eternal – Buy, TP Rs 375
Swiggy – Buy, TP Rs 510
CLSA India Thematics
El Niño risk looms
Heatwave demand up, monsoon-linked sectors brace for impact
Hotter temperatures and below-normal rainfall could stoke food inflation and pressure rural incomes
This poses downside risk for tractor demand
Heat-sensitive categories – ACs, coolers, refrigerators, fans and summer FMCG such as ice creams, beverages and dairy – would be primed for a demand boost
Rising power demand and higher global coal prices could tighten availability for the non-power sector and push up e-auction prices for Coal India
Jefferies India Strategy
Bottom-up Analyst Top Ideas March 2026
Fresh inclusion to Buys are SBI, Star Health, Groww, Bharat Forge, JSW Steel, Eternal and Max Healthcare
New Underperform ideas are Hyundai, Cipla and Wipro
2 of the previous Underperform ideas – Delhivery and Laurus have been upgraded to Buy and Hold respectively
Elara Capital on India Energy
Energy shock risk from LNG disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz
Brent crude approaching $100 per barrel
Gas supply disruption impacting multiple sectors
CGD players most exposed: Petronet LNG, GAIL, Gujarat State Petronet Limited
RAC component makers vulnerable: Amber Enterprises India and PG Electroplast
Three-month disruption could cut Amber EPS by 30–35% and PG Electroplast EPS by 25–30%
OMCs most vulnerable: Bharat Petroleum, Hindustan Petroleum, Indian Oil Corporation
Upstream beneficiaries: Oil and Natural Gas Corporation and Oil India Limited
Hindalco Industries may benefit from tighter aluminium markets
Morgan Stanley on Asian Chemicals
Investor interest rising across chemical equities
Strong interest in PE, Butadiene, PVC, Urea chains
Petronas Chemicals and PTTGC seeing highest investor interest
Rising hedge fund interest in gas pipelines and midstream
Petronet LNG and Keppel seeing stronger investor attention
GAIL and city gas players seeing limited investor questions
Strategic petroleum releases raising investor concerns
Policy risks making investors selective on refiners & retailers
Morgan Stanley on Asian Equities
Recommend selling rallies in Asian equities
Brent expected average around $90 in H1 2026
Strait of Hormuz disruption could push Brent to $120 to $130
Demand destruction may be required at those levels
Asia more vulnerable due to high oil import dependence
Bear case implies Asian markets 15% to 20% downside
MOSL on JSW Infrastructure
Maintains Buy rating with a target price of ₹360
Capacity expansion and logistics scale-up to drive FY28 earnings inflection
Remains focused on scaling its logistics business, leveraging synergies from the Navkar acquisition
Aims to build a pan-India multimodal network, targeting ₹8000 Cr in revenue with a 25% EBITDA margin by FY30
Expect CO to strengthen its market dominance, leading to a 13% volume CAGR over FY25–28
This, along with a sharp rise in logistics revenue, is expected to drive a 33% CAGR in revenue and a 28% CAGR in EBITDA over the same period
HBSC on Coal India
Recommendation Hold; Target ₹420, Earlier Target ₹380
Higher E-auction premiums positive in near term
Structural oversupply remains a concern
Higher gas and regional coal prices lift our E-auction premium and volume
Keep FY28 earnings unchanged as fundamental issue of oversupply of domestic coal and weak thermal demand should drive premiums lower
Near-term stock outperformance due to Middle East situation, but should fade once gas supplies normalise
Morgan Stanley on Real Estate (Data Centre Thematic)
Global AI capex explosion could boost India’s Data Center capacity to 10.5 GW by FY31
Capacity estimated at about 1.8 GW in FY26
About $60bn investment cycle expected over the next five years
Data centre yields estimated at 13%–16%, higher than office asset yields of 10%–11%
Macrotech Developers and Mindspace Business Parks REIT seen as key beneficiaries
Lodha potential rentals about ₹21bn from 1GW plan
Data centres emerging as a new growth vertical
DLF and Prestige also have some exposure
Developers benefit owing to access to land, ability to manage the approval process, experience in building structures and housing as rental assets
Returns may be comparable to commercial assets, but faster development, strong rental growth, and valuation premiums make data centers more attractive
Lodha and Mindspace could have >20% upside from their current valuation from Data Center expansion alone
UBS on CPI
CPI inflation at 3.2% year-on-year in February was higher than consensus expectations
Rising energy prices add to India’s near-term inflation pressures
Iran shock: markets already pricing in rate hike by the RBI in 2026
Food inflation continued to accelerate
Goldman Sachs on India Inflation
February CPI inflation rose to 3.2% YoY
January CPI inflation was 2.7% YoY
Food inflation increased driven by vegetables
Core inflation steady at 3.4% YoY
Core ex PDGS inflation steady at 2.1% YoY
March CPI estimate around 3.4% YoY
Upside risks from higher crude oil forecasts
Morgan Stanley on India Inflation
Headline CPI rose to 3.2% YoY in February vs 2.7% YoY in January
Food CPI rose to 3.4% YoY
Housing CPI steady at 1.5% YoY
Core CPI steady at 3.4% YoY
Transport prices declined marginally in February
March CPI estimated around 3.3%–3.5% YoY
Upside risks from higher LPG prices
BofA on CPI
February CPI review: Inflation rising but more gradually
CPI Details: Food prices higher, services remain in check
Inflation in control, West Asia conflict adds uncertainty
Impact of the ongoing conflict is likely to impact WPI prices in the March print
Impact on CPI inflation should be limited by government intervention managing the pump prices
Every $10/barrel increase in energy prices, headline inflation would increase by 25-30 bps per year
Maintain view that the RBI will likely hold rates for an extended period with a neutral stance
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