India’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection for 2026-27 has been revised upwards by 20 basis points to 7-7.4%, with the economy likely to achieve the upper end of the range, chief economic advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran said on Friday.
A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point.
The Economic Survey in January had projected a growth rate of 6.8-7.2%. The upward revision follows the introduction of a new GDP series with base year 2022-23, replacing 2011-12. “At the moment, we feel that the risk is on the upside in this range, that is the economy is more likely to achieve a number closer to 7.4% rather than 7%. Of course, global uncertainties are the downside risk factor to keep in mind,” the CEA said at a press conference. Nageswaran identified investment and consumption as key growth drivers for the next financial year. Further, improved policy certainty resulting from successful trade agreements, including India-US and India-EU trade progress, will support exports and capital flows, he said.
Statistics and programme implementation ministry secretary Saurabh Garg said the updated GDP series incorporates expanded data sources including goods and services tax filings, e-Vahan registrations, the Public Finance Management System, the Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises and the Periodic Labour Force Survey. The methodology now incorporates double deflation or single extrapolation technique. The Indian economy is expected to expand 7.6% in 2025-26, as against 7.4% growth projected in the first advance estimates based on the previous base year.
The second advance estimate implies that the GDP must grow at least 7.3% in the ongoing fourth quarter for the full-year estimate of 7.6% to be achieved. According to Nageswaran, the momentum in the economy is “good enough to deliver us that 7.3% growth rate in the fourth quarter”. India’s GDP grew 7.8% in the third quarter of this fiscal, 8.4% in the second quarter and 6.7% in the second quarter.
Growth achieved in 2024-25 has also been revised upwards, to 7.1% from 6.5%, while for 2023-24 it has revised downwards to 7.2% from 9.2%.
Nageswaran said three consecutive years of 7% plus GDP growth “corroborates and vindicates” the Economic Survey’s revision to India’s potential GDP growth rate to around 7%.>
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