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Over the last year, Barclays’ (LSE:BARC) shares have outperformed Lloyds Banking Group, NatWest, and the FTSE 100. But the next 12 months might be even bigger.
One of the most hotly-anticipated investor events of 2026 is SpaceX’s launch onto the stock market. And Barclays stands to benefit in a huge way.
SpaceX
For investors who are interested in space, Elon Musk’s SpaceX is impossible to ignore. It’s a very long way ahead of its competitors. The firm accounts for around 85% of satellite launches, and has a roughly similar market share in satellite internet.
There are some other publicly-traded names available at the moment. But SpaceX is the leader and it’s not close. That means significant interest in the firm’s initial public offering (IPO), and it’s seeking a valuation that reflects this.
SpaceX is looking to raise $75bn and achieve a stock market valuation of $1.75trn. That would put it between Meta Platforms and Amazon.
That’s huge. And it’s a big deal for the banks that have been tasked with managing the firm’s launch – which includes Barclays.
Taking the UK lead
IPOs are very profitable for investment banks, so Barclays being appointed as the exclusive regional lead for the UK is a big deal.
The role involves aggregating UK demand from both retail and institutional investors. And this could well be a huge opportunity.
Estimating the scale of the opportunity accurately is virtually impossible. But there are some ways to get a rough idea. SpaceX is making 30% of its shares available to retail investors and if the UK accounts for a fifth of this, that could be around $4.4bn.
On top of this, there’s institutional demand from organisations such as Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust. And this might well be even higher.
For this type of transaction, a 0.5% take rate isn’t out of the question. That implies somewhere in the region of $55m in fee revenue. On top of this, there are additional fees for things like foreign exchange conversion. So the eventual deal could be worth around $75m.
What it means
The SpaceX IPO should be a huge coup for Barclays. But deals like this don’t come around often – and that’s important for investors.
The real significance of the deal however, might not be the numbers. It might be what it implies about the FTSE 100 firm. Barclays is the only UK bank with a major investment banking division. But the big question for investors is whether it’s worth it.
When IPO activity is subdued, it can hold the firm back. This can be a risk and it doesn’t apply to the likes of Lloyds and NatWest.
In order to justify this, Barclays needs its investment bank to provide opportunities. And the SpaceX deal is a big positive. In terms of the investment equation, the short-term windfall does matter, but the real significance is the potential long-term opportunity.
Opportunity?
Events like the SpaceX IPO don’t come around often and that makes this a rare and unusual opportunity for Barclays. There are however, more on the way. OpenAI and Anthropic are both looking at going public in the next 12 months.
Despite all this, Barclays is trading at a lower multiple than Lloyds or NatWest. I think that’s got to be worth a closer look.
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