The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday said that the southwest monsoon in 2026 is cumulatively likely to be ‘below normal’ at 92 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). The forecast, if comes true, will be the first time since 2023 that India will have ‘below normal’ cumulative monsoon rains.
The forecast, which has a model error margin of plus or minus 5 per cent, is mainly attributed to the development of El Niño conditions during the June to September period, the department said. It also noted that most parts of India, except some areas in the Northeast, Northwest, and South Peninsular regions, are likely to receive ‘below normal’ rainfall this year.
According to the IMD, the LPA for the four-month monsoon season is 87 centimetres, which means if the forecast is accurate, the all-India average rainfall this monsoon season could be around 80.04 centimetres.
Cumulative all-India rainfall between 90 per cent and 95 per cent of the LPA is considered ‘below normal’ by the IMD.
Past data shows that ‘below-normal’ monsoon years do not always lead to low kharif output, if the timing, distribution, and spread of rainfall are not uneven. However, crops such as pulses and oilseeds, which are largely grown in non-irrigated areas, are at risk.
Lower output of pulses and oilseeds could increase the import bill for these commodities, impact food inflation, and potentially slow overall economic growth.
The monsoon, which delivers more than 70 per cent of India’s annual precipitation, is considered the lifeline of the country’s agriculture sector. However, irrigation coverage has improved in recent years — from 49.3 per cent to 55 per cent of the Gross Cropped Area (GCA) between FY16 and FY21.
Also, snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere during the past three months (January to March) was slightly below normal, which also has an impact on the monsoon.
“Winter and spring snow cover extent over the Northern Hemisphere, as well as Eurasia, generally has an inverse relationship with the subsequent Indian summer monsoon rainfall,” the department said.
M K Dhanuka, chairman of Dhanuka Agritech Limited, said that with the IMD forecasting a below-normal monsoon at 92 per cent of the LPA, planning becomes more critical.
“For key crops like paddy, cotton, pulses, and oilseeds, the distribution and timing of rainfall will be crucial,” Dhanuka said.
The IMD will release an updated forecast in the last week of May, when it will forecast the onset date of the monsoon.
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