The West Asia crisis, which could disrupt fertiliser supply, has now reached the doorstep of millions of Indian farmers.
“Wheat is done for this season, but we are somewhat tense about the upcoming maize, paddy, and potato crops,” says Ram Prasad Kumar, a farmer from Karnal in Haryana.
At Ludhiana’s Khanna Mandi, farmer Baljeet Singh is already witnessing a crisis unfold. “The society truck of diammonium phosphate (DAP) and urea has not arrived in our village for the past three months. If this continues, we either travel 50-60 kilometres to procure it or buy in bulk for the coming months,” he says. “Travel is also a challenge because we are cautious about diesel use,” he adds.
Fertiliser wholesalers echo the concern.
“March-April is when we stock up for demand, which picks up in June. But supply seems slow this year,” says a dealer in Gohana Mandi.
Another supplier, Bhupesh Gupta from Kurukshetra, flags a similar crunch. “Almost 80 per cent of my customers want to buy for the next eight to nine months. I have stock now, but it will run out soon, and no rack has arrived in the past two to three months,” he says.
According to a March 30 briefing by Aparna Sharma, additional secretary in the Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers, the Gulf region accounted for 20-30 per cent of India’s urea imports and about 30 per cent of DAP imports before the war.
Ministry data shows that India’s DAP imports during April–January 2025–26 rose to 14.94 million tonnes (mt), up from 9.17 mt in the same period a year earlier. Urea imports rose 83.3 per cent.
Even as the government diversifies import sources and boosts domestic production, farmers and sellers remain unsure about uninterrupted supply.
“We have heard that urea plants are operating at much lower capacity, and some have advanced their shutdowns,” says a farmer in Khanna Mandi. “Such news will create panic among those in remote villages,” he adds.
Media reports suggest that National Fertilizers plants in Bathinda and Nangal have shut operations ahead of schedule. These plants usually close in April after meeting production targets. Others may also be operating at reduced capacity.
The fertiliser ministry observed that domestic urea production fell to 1.8 mt in March from an earlier average of 2.4 mt. On Saturday, the government announced that gas supply to urea plants would be increased to 90 per cent of average consumption from Monday. Currently, plants are operating at 70–75 per cent of their six-month average.
“Even if the situation improves in the coming months, it could take almost a year for supply to normalise,” says another fertiliser seller in Khanna Mandi.
Advance buying is also creating financial strain.
“I did not plan my finances for this crisis. Even to buy for the next wheat crop in June for my 5-acre land, I need over ₹25,000 immediately for DAP alone. Urea will add another ₹4,000,” says Mandeep Singh, a farmer from Gohana.
DAP costs ₹1,350 per 50-kilogram bag, while urea is priced at ₹266.5. Sellers say this could hit small farmers hardest.
“Those who buy season to season may face challenges. We cannot guarantee future availability right now,” says Sandeep Kumar, a fertiliser dealer in Karnal Mandi.
However, sellers note that the current off-season gives them some time to rebuild inventory. “Demand will peak after June. We hope the situation improves by then and the government fixes the supply chain,” says Kumar.
Pradeep Gupta, a fertiliser dealer in Khanna Mandi for over 30 years, believes the real impact is yet to unfurl. “It would be wrong to say we cannot supply fertilisers right now. We have stock, and some is still coming. But I have seen shortages during peak demand in the past. Given the situation, it could worsen,” he says.
Traders say clearer signals will emerge once more farmers bring their harvest to mandis and have cash in hand.
Panic, hoarding and bulk buying — these words echo across mandis.
“Farmers are convinced there will be a shortage. When they come for bulk buying, we first show them our stock to reassure them,” says Jaiprakash Khadiya, in charge of Indian Farmers Fertiliser Cooperative in Taraori.
“There is also hoarding. Private players expect prices to rise due to the war. They may hold stock and sell later at higher prices,” he adds.
On bulk buying, Khadiya says dealers try to persuade farmers that they need no more than two to three bags of DAP per acre. “But many buy four to five bags. That level is required only for crops like potato,” he says.
Traders in Haryana confirm advisories to limit DAP sales to three bags per acre.
“What’s wrong with bulk buying? Look at the situation,” argue a group of farmers. “When the need arises in a few months, we won’t have time to arrange fertilisers. Crops don’t wait. If delays spoil them, will there be compensation?”
According to Dharam Patel, a member of the National Fertilizer Association, Punjab, and a trader in Patiala Mandi, even a slight price increase could curb usage.
“Prices have remained unchanged for years, and farmers are comfortable with them. Sometimes they overuse fertilisers. In this situation, that will strain supply,” he says.
On alternatives, he says there is no shortage of triple superphosphate, nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium, or single superphosphate.
“The real challenge is that the government has not convinced farmers of their benefits. They mostly ask for DAP and urea because they believe these provide better nutrients,” he says.
Pesticide prices, which are not regulated by the government, have risen over 20 per cent in the past two to three weeks.
“Companies closed their books on March 31. We expect further price hikes when bookings for the new season begin,” says a pesticide wholesaler in Karnal.
Some farmers and retailers allege that wholesalers are exaggerating supply constraints to push up prices.
“We understand the crisis for oil-based pesticides, but what about water-based ones? Their prices are rising too,” says Gupta from Kurukshetra.
The crisis extends beyond fertilisers.
In some areas, fear of shortages has led farmers to store fuel. “Small farmers are storing fuel because they fear it may not reach them if shortages occur,” says Amarjeet Singh, a farmer visiting Patiala Mandi.
“Even though storing diesel in containers damages tractors, people in villages are forced to do it. Ninety per cent of our machines run on diesel,” he adds.
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