The ongoing conflict near the Strait of Hormuz is not only affecting oil shipments but also disrupting global fertilizer supply. Analysts warn that rising fertilizer costs could lead to smaller harvests and higher food prices later this year.
Around one-third of the world’s seaborne fertilizer trade moves through the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route along Iran’s southern coast. Since military strikes began in late February, shipping activity has slowed sharply, creating supply shortages for important agricultural nutrients such as urea, ammonia, potash, and sulfur.
Fertilizer prices have increased significantly in recent weeks. Urea, one of the most widely used nitrogen fertilizers, has climbed to about $700 per metric ton, compared with roughly $400 to $490 before the conflict began. Experts say nitrogen is essential for crop growth, meaning farmers cannot easily delay its use without affecting yields.
Countries in the Middle East play a major role in fertilizer production, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and Iran. With exports from the region constrained, global supply chains are under pressure. Some analysts believe the impact could be greater than the disruption caused by the Russia-Ukraine War because several major producers are affected at the same time.
Higher fertilizer prices could increase production costs for farmers worldwide, which may eventually raise grocery prices. Emerging economies that rely heavily on imports may feel the strongest effects, particularly in regions already facing food security risks.
Experts say existing food reserves may reduce immediate shortages, but prolonged supply disruptions could still influence global food inflation in the months ahead.
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