India’s smartphone market reported a 3 per cent on-year decline in shipments in the first three months of 2026, its weakest quarter in six years owing to inflated component costs and currency pressures. Further, shipments are expected to hit a double-digit decline in Q2 as cost pressures persist.
Supply-side cost pressures, OEM-led price hikes and weak consumer demand weighed on retail conversions across channels despite higher launch activity, as per Counterpoint Research’s Monthly India Smartphone Tracker. A third of model launches were advanced to Q1 to offset rising component costs. However, sharp memory-led cost inflation and currency pressures forced OEMs to raise prices across key models, said Prachir Singh, Senior Analyst, Counterpoint Research.
“With average hikes exceeding ₹1,500, the sub- ₹15,000 segment has been hit the hardest, given its high price sensitivity,” he said.
Dismal Q2
According to Tarun Pathak, Research Director, Counterpoint Research, India’s smartphone market is expected to remain under pressure in the near term, with Q2 likely to see a double-digit decline. “Elevated memory prices and weak entry-level demand continue to weigh on overall volumes. For the full year, the market is projected to decline by 10% YoY,” he said.
Meanwhile, Singh warned that rising energy costs amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East will further squeeze household costs, leading to stretched out upgrade cycles and a slowed-down recovery in the mass segment.
Brand dynamics
Counterpoint advised brands to focus on premium-led growth, tighter portfolio execution and channel efficiency, while the premium segment should remain relatively resilient.
Among brands, Apple, with a 9 per cent shipment share in Q1, is better positioned to navigate memory price pressures due to its premium portfolio and efficient supply chain management. For now, vivo (21 per cent share), Samsung (17 per cent share) and OPPO (14 per cent share) remain the top three brands in the market.
Published on April 17, 2026
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