New Delhi: India needs to keep its feet firmly on the ground as the war in West Asia unfolds because in its retaliation strategy, Iran has identified the Gulf countries as the weakest link, hence its key targets which, in turn, carry highest risk of collateral damage to India. In fact, until now, Iran has fired more missiles and drones on the UAE than on Israel.
From an Indian standpoint, situation on the ground is fragile. One Indian has already become a casualty of war following Iran strikes in Oman and two are missing. Now, Gulf countries are home to 9 million Indians as opposed to roughly 9,000 in Iran, of which 5,000 are on long religious study courses in seminaries in Qom, so far unwilling to return. Of the rest, half have come back.
The next important fact is on the energy front. In the last 24 hours, Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz saying they will fire at any ship trying to pass the channel, which accounts for a large amount of crude headed to India. Importantly, the only exemption is to China-flagged ships.
Clearly, the Iranian regime is fighting for survival as even on previous occasions, it had desisted from blocking Hormuz because of the negative impact on its own economy. With its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei killed and so too its top defence leadership, Teheran’s options are limited. It needs to militarily respond while also trying to quickly put together its next leadership rung and close any political vacuum that could be exploited.
Historically, Iran’s strength has been its political stamina to drag on and outlast any war dynamic, knowing well that its religious orthodoxy will survive any democratic government in the US or Israel. While this time that assumption has been rudely unsettled, the aim of the Iranian regime besides demonstrating political control is to figure a way to get other countries in the region to pressure the US.
Why? Because Israel, more than the US, is politically prepared for the long fight. It’s willing to stretch the conflict, take casualties and play hard because of the dramatic change in Israeli public sentiment since the October 7 terror attacks.
The US is a warring power. It can absorb casualties, but the question is how long Donald Trump would want to drag this conflict for a regime change given his own campaign position against ‘forever wars’. Or would Washington transact business with whoever is in Tehran, now that Khamenei is out of the equation?
The answer to that lies in the political timeline that Trump has drawn up for himself. He needs a quick win and how he frames that victory, amid other pressing domestic compulsions, will determine the US approach. But for now, the line from Washington is that it’s prepared for longer, if need be.
So, the spotlight falls on the rest of the Gulf countries, who would be worried on two counts. First, the psychological impact of Iranian strikes on their economic identity, which is central to their high-income good-living global perception. The idea that they become unsafe destinations because Iran is determined to take them down is sure to unsettle the ruling political elites in these countries.
Next is the mood on the streets. Just as Iran is trying to control Iranian public sentiment amid Trump’s repeated urgings to overthrow the religious orthodoxy, the worry in the Gulf political elite would be anti-US/Israel sentiment. So far, it’s mostly an agitated Shia sentiment that has played out most acutely in Bahrain, which is predominantly Shia, forcing the regime to seek help from Saudi Arabia to control pro-Iran protests.
But going ahead, none of the Gulf regimes would want street issues to deal with. Iran knows this and hence, more pronounced attacks on the weakest link. And so, even as the US and Israel chart their plans, the tilt in the conflict may come from the Gulf – the same set of countries with India has most at stake.>
Source link
#deep #West #Asian #Gulf #Indias #stakes #rise #Iran #shifts #focus #regional #targets
