OPEC sees slower demand growth this year as production falls more than 30% on Hormuz closure

Oil production among OPEC members fell further in April and is down more than 30% since the start of the Iran war in late February, the cartel said in its latest monthly update on Wednesday.

OPEC also lowered its demand growth forecast for 2026 to around 1.2 million barrels per day, down from about 1.4 million bpd previously. Global demand is facing constraints because supply from the Persian Gulf has been effectively cut off by Iran’s blockade of the Strait of the Hormuz.

OPEC production fell by 1.7 million bpd in April after output plunged by 7.9 million bpd in March. In total, production among OPEC members has fallen more than 30%, or 9.7 million bpd, during the war.

Global oil inventories are depleting at a record pace due to the mounting supply loss from the closure of Hormuz, according to the International Energy Agency’s latest update published Wednesday. Inventories fell by 250 million barrels, or 4 million bpd, over March and April.

The total cumulative supply loss from the Gulf producers now exceeds a billion barrels with more than 14 million bpd shut down due to the Hormuz closure, according to the IEA.