Tehran:
The fate of a shaky cease-fire between the United States and Iran is once again uncertain, even as President Donald Trump has halted fresh strikes on the Islamic Republic at the request of America’s Gulf allies Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The US leader asserted that he agreed to pause the military action as serious discussions were underway with Tehran that could lead to an acceptable deal.
However, Axios reported, citing US officials, that Iran’s updated proposal for a deal to end the war isn’t a meaningful improvement and is insufficient. Trump himself told the New York Post that he’s “not open” to any concessions for Tehran, claiming the Islamic regime knows “what’s going to be happening soon.”
Trump stressed that he’s not “frustrated” with Tehran, saying, “I can tell you they want to make a deal more than ever because they know we’re — what’s going to be happening soon.”
Amid Trump’s not-so-veiled threats, Iranians are getting ready for a possible escalation, signalling that they will not fall short of extracting a heavy price from neighbours and the world economy if they are attacked.
Possible War Scenarios in Iran
Talking to the New York Times, Hamidreza Azizi, an expert on Iranian security issues at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, noted that in the first round after the war broke out on February 28, Tehran was bracing for a prolonged conflict of around three months.
Therefore, the Iranians limited the use of drone and missile attacks against Israel and regional targets to sustain their ammunition for weeks.
But, by contrast, Azizi said that if the war breaks out again, Iranian leaders would expect fighting to be “short but high intensity”, including coordinated heavy strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, as threatened by Trump earlier.
Iranians are also preparing for a potential scenario where the US actually puts boots on the ground and invades its economic lifelines, like Kharg Island.
How Might Iran Retaliate
Azizi, who follows public commentary by government-affiliated experts and those close to the military or security establishment, believed that in any new round of fighting, Tehran is likely to fire off tens or hundreds of missiles per day on Iranian and Gulf targets to “effectively confront the enemy and also change the calculation on the other side”.
Intensifying attacks on Arab energy infrastructure– like oil fields, refineries and ports — is one of the most potent ways in which the Islamic Republic could inflict pain on the global economy and put pressure on Trump.
If the damages are big enough, Gulf nations like the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia could be pushed into deeper economic losses than they have sought to avoid. The intent has been visible in the anti-Emirati threats issued by Iranian officials and government-aligned analysts since the report emerged, claiming the UAE and Saudi Arabia carried out secret attacks on Iran during the US-Israeli onslaught.
“We must certainly return the Emirates to the era of riding camels — and we can do this,” said Mehdi Kharatian, an analyst close to Iran’s security forces, in a podcast last month. “If necessary, we will occupy Abu Dhabi,” he proclaimed.
Ali Alfoneh, a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute, told NYT that, although such anti-Emirati statements are hyperbolic, they “reflect important currents of thinking” within the leadership of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.
“The threat of Iranian retaliation against major oil producers remains one of the very few factors restraining US behaviour toward Iran,” he said.
Other Cards In Iran’s Hand
Iran already has the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which a fifth of the global oil supply passes in peacetime, in its chokehold. Experts believe that if the war escalates, Tehran could also try to exert control over the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a narrow passage connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden through which one-tenth of global trade passes.
The waterway sits alongside territory controlled by the Houthis, an Iranian-backed militia in Yemen that has vowed to defend Iran in case of a regional war.
The move might keep up the pressure on the global economy and would force the US to focus on two fronts rather than one.
Moreover, over the past few days, pictures and videos emerging from Tehran show the appearance of public gun kiosks, where civilians are being offered basic lessons in using weapons — a sign of how the Iranian authorities are readying people for a possible ground invasion by US troops.
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