Iran war fallout set to filter into economic data

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The war in the Middle East will once again provide the daily backdrop to the news agenda and market movements, but the fallout from the conflict now looks set to start filtering through to the week’s economic data releases as well.

The first signs are expected in Tuesday’s flash purchasing managers’ indices, when the prospect of higher costs is likely to weigh on confidence and new orders. Rising uncertainty is also set to be a factor in Thursday’s OECD interim economic outlook report, as well as consumer confidence reports from the EU, Germany and the UK.

Denmark votes in a general election on Tuesday, when Mette Frederiksen’s Social Democrats are expected to stay in power, albeit with what is forecast to be the party’s weakest results in a hundred years. If she does survive as prime minister, it will be thanks in part to her tough response to US President Donald Trump’s designs on Greenland — read this FT interview for more on her perspective on the matter.

Across the North Sea in Westminster Sir Keir Starmer is up before the Liaison Committee on Monday, where he will face a grilling from MPs, including several from his own party, about his performance as prime minister. Separately, Starmer will hold a Cobra meeting on plans to help mitigate the impact of the Iran war on the cost of living. The conflict has upended the government’s hopes of economic recovery and stabilisation of the public finances in 2026, as this piece explains.

Dame Sarah Mullally formally becomes Archbishop of Canterbury in a service at the city’s cathedral on Wednesday. This is of note because of the Church of England’s place as the UK’s only established church: Mullally broke off from her pilgrimage to the city last week to speak in the House of Lords against decriminalising abortion up to birth, where she is one of 26 residing Anglican bishops. Expect her Canterbury service address to be closely watched. Here is an FT take on the challenges Mullally faces both providing moral guidance and holding together an openly ruptured institution.

Corporate earnings are thin on the ground but there are still some big names reporting, mostly in retail. British high street clothing chain Next is on a roll, so expectations for its full-year figures on Thursday will be high. H&M, the world’s second-largest clothing retailer, has focused on increasing profitability of late. The question when it reports on Thursday will be whether sales growth can improve. More details on this and the other items below.

One more thing . . . 

Easter arrives early this year — thanks to the Paschal Full Moon on April 1 apparently — and it kicks off this week with Palm Sunday. Which begs the question: is it too early to start tucking into hot cross buns or a freshly baked colomba cake? Send your opinions to me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• EU: European Commission Flash March Consumer Confidence Indicator

• Japan: February convenience store sales

• UK: first day of trading following the FTSE UK Index quarterly review changes. IG Group and Lion Finance join the FTSE 100, replacing EasyJet and Hikma Pharmaceuticals. Also, REC February Labour Market Tracker

• Earnings calls: Salzgitter Q4/FY

Tuesday

• Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill speaks at the National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia and SUERF conference “Central banking amid persistent global shifts: Fostering stability, innovation and resilience” in Skopje, Macedonia

• Argentina: Memorial Day for Truth and Justice holiday. Financial markets closed

• Eurozone, France, Germany, India, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data

• Japan: February consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data

• South Korea: February producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data

• US: Q4 productivity and costs data

• Earnings calls: Bellway HY, Gamma Communications FY, Henry Boot FY, Kingfisher FY, Xiaomi FY, YouGov HY

Wednesday

• European Central Bank Christine Lagarde gives the president’s address at the Its Watchers conference organised by the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability at Goethe University in Frankfurt, Germany

• Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene is a panellist at the Jefferies pan-European mid-cap conference in London

• Australia: February CPI inflation rate data

• Germany: March Ifo Business Climate Index

• Japan: minutes of January’s monetary policy meeting

• UK: February CPI and PPI inflation rate data. Also, March Price Index of Private Rents and the UK House Price Index, measuring property costs

• US: February import and export price indices

• Earnings calls: EnBW FY, Eurowag FY, Fever-Tree FY, MillerKnoll Q3, PayChex Q3

Thursday

• Carolyn Rogers, senior deputy governor of the Bank of Canada, speaks at Brandon Chamber of Commerce “on factors affecting Canada’s economic outlook and financial system”

• Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene engages in a fireside chat at the PEI Infrastructure Investor Global Summit 2026 in Berlin

• Alan Taylor, an external member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, speaks at Exante Data’s 10-year anniversary macro conference in New York

• OECD Interim Economic Outlook Report published in Paris

• Australia: February labour force data

• India: Ram Navami, the Hindu festival celebrating the birth of Rama. Financial markets closed

• Japan: February services PPI inflation rate data

• UK: February capital issuance statistics. Also, British Retail Consortium’s March Consumer Sentiment Monitor

• Earnings calls: Bertelsmann FY, Co-operative Group FY, Delivery Hero Q4/FY, Hapag-Lloyd FY, HB Fuller Q1, H&M Q1/3M, Mears FY, Next FY

Friday

• Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco president Mary Daly and Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia president Anna Paulson speak at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Annual Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference

• EU: European Central Bank Consumer Expectations Survey

• Spain: February CPI inflation rate data

• UK: February retail sales and the March GfK consumer confidence survey

• Earnings calls: BYD FY, Carnival Q1

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• Australia: European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen begins a three-day visit, including a meeting with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Canberra, with the aim of striking a trade deal

• Italy: second and final day of the country’s referendum on judicial system changes, a key reform agenda of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government. Voters must decide whether to separate the career paths of judges and split Italy’s judicial self-governing body into two separate councils

• UK: Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer answers questions about his government’s performance from MPs on Westminster’s Liaison Committee. Outside London, economics think-tank The Growth Commission hosts Mending Britain’s Broken Economy, a conference in Buckingham, where guest speakers will include former PM Liz Truss

• US: Space Science Week begins at the National Academy of Sciences Building in Washington, with industry experts discussing the future directions of space science and the commercial galactic flight industry

Tuesday

• China: Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2026 begins in the eponymous coastal town, which is part of the city of Qionghai, Hainan. It runs until Friday

• Denmark: parliamentary elections

Wednesday

• UK: Dame Sarah Mullally is installed at Canterbury Cathedral, marking her official appointment as the first female Archbishop of Canterbury

• US: Conservative Political Action Conference begins at the Gaylord Texan Resort & Convention Center in Grapevine, Texas. Speakers include former British prime minister Liz Truss, Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, deputy attorney-general Todd Blanche and political strategist Steve Bannon. It runs until Saturday

Thursday

• Belgium: Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte presents his 2025 annual report at the military alliance’s Brussels headquarters

• Cameroon: the WTO’s 14th Ministerial Conference begins in Yaoundé, continuing until Sunday. The conference will be chaired by Luc Magloire Mbarga Atangana, Cameroon’s trade minister

• Faroe Islands: parliamentary elections

• France: G7 foreign ministers meeting begins in Cernay, concluding tomorrow

• UK: 2026 MOBO Awards, the biggest celebration of Black British culture

• US: Jeffrey Epstein’s prison guard Tova Noel is scheduled to sit for deposition following a Congressional subpoena in Washington

Friday

• Switzerland: Lucerne spring festival of classical music begins, running until Sunday

• UK: 50th anniversary of British entrepreneur Anita Roddick opening the first branch of The Body Shop health and beauty chain in Brighton

Saturday

• WWF’s Earth Hour rolls across the globe with famous landmarks, skylines, businesses and homes switching their lights off for one hour at 20:30 local time to focus attention on climate change

• Spain: 90th birthday of Spanish businessman Amancio Ortega, the founder of Zara owner Inditex

• United Arab Emirates: 30th Dubai World Cup, billed as one of the world’s richest horse races

• UK: Together Alliance “Together against the far-right” national demonstration in London with speakers including Green Party leader Zack Polanski, former Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn and actors Christopher Eccleston, Mark Rylance, Maxine Peake and Toby Jones

• US: third “No Kings” nationwide protest, held to oppose the “authoritarian power grab” under President Donald Trump

Sunday

• European Daylight Saving Time and British Summer Time begin, meaning that clocks across the continent “spring” forward

• Japan: Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto arrives for a three-day state visit, during which he will meet Japan’s prime minister Sanae Takaichi and be the main guest at a court lunch with Emperor Naruhito

• Vatican City: Pope Leo leads Palm Sunday celebrations