Europe’s Future: Should We Be Worried? – The European Financial Review

By Joseph Mazur

How much longer will the NATO alliance survive the erratic and rancorous antics of its strongest member?

Will Trump’s war with Iran change the map of Europe? While the U.S undermines NATO, Iran controls the price of oil, and Russian oil is excluded from Europe, the continent contemplates a future that could see the rebirth of nationalism and war within its boundaries. 

– Margaret Thatcher meeting with
President Gorbachev in Moscow in 1989 ^[1]

Many years ago, when I was a young boy, I came across a thick book in my local public library titled The Blue Book Atlas by Rand McNally. Each page showed a map of Europe in a lineage of years. Poland’s color was yellow. Flipping the pages gave me a zoetrope thumb animation, mostly of Poland that bubbled in yellow as it morphed from being Galicia to the Grand Duchy of Warsaw and eventually a massive land that took over a large chunk of East Prussia. I was never able to find that book again while recalling the atlas 50 years later. Now we have a wonderful animation called “The Centennial Atlas,” an animated map that tells European border changes that pop and jump from one country to another. (Click here to see a similar historical atlas.) ^[2] I flipped through an animated map of Europe from the beginning of the 11th century to the early 21st century. That said, we may think about why the map of Western Europe (excluding the Soviet Bloc countries) did not change too much after WWII.

Worries of Europe’s future rather than America’s

We need not go back far to list European countries at war with each other in the 19th century. I counted 13 wars, some long, some short. Europe has always been at war over … what? Those wars were about balancing power, not about minerals or territory.

8. Napoleonic Wars (1803-1815)
9. Greek War of Independence (1821-1832)
10. French invasion of Spain (1823)
11. Hungarian Revolution and War of Independence (1848-1849)
12. First Schleswig War (1848-1851) – Prussian and Austrian forces crossed the border into the Danish fief Schleswig. Read more.
13. Wars of Italian Independence (1848-1866)
14. Crimean War (1854-1856) – Britain, France, and Sardinia join together to defend the Ottoman Empire (Turkey) from Russia. Most ground combat took place in the Russian peninsula of Crimea.
15. Second Schleswig War (1864) – Austria and Prussia combine against Denmark to take Schleswig and make it a part of Germany.
16. Austro-Prussian War (1866) – Short conflict in which Prussia, in effect, forced Austria out of German affairs.
17. Franco-Prussian War (1870-1871) – The last of the German Unification Wars, this war led to the formation of the German Empire (the Second Reich), and thence directly to World War I.
18. Russo-Turkish War (1877-1878)
19. Serbo-Bulgarian War (1885)
20. Greco-Turkish War (1897)

By 1939, 20 European countries were at war, while 13 independent countries – Andorra, Estonia, Ireland, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Monaco, Portugal, San Marino, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the Vatican City – took positions of neutrality and stayed out of the battle.

These days, European countries have almost no need for territory, nor any need for minerals other than rare-earth ones, since they could be bought or traded. Oil might be needed in Western Europe but is not worth fighting for because there will soon be a time when renewable energy will take over from most of the fossil fuels that are now messing with the atmosphere. Political power is a different story. That kind of power is part of the human condition from the cave man wanting a warmer, more habitable cave to anyone with irrational urges to use powerful influence to control a country’s resources.

Pick the Napoleonic Wars and ask for Napoleon’s motives. It’s not easy to say why Napoleon wanted to expand France’s territory for reasons other than simply being jealous of Great Britain, a country just across the English Channel that dominated the world economy by trade and territory. Before Napoleon, France was a major power with abundant territories. But the vast French Empire was significantly diminished in the 1763 French and Indian War when Great Britain gained enormous territories. France had to cede Canada and all its land east of the Mississippi River to Great Britain.

Like Putin today, invading Ukraine with hopes to bring back a portion of the Russian Empire, Napoleon hoped to expand dominance following the French Revolution and to counter British world power. But France was defeated in the 12 years of his wars with Europe, while Britain emerged as the imperial power that lasted for most of the century.

Setting aside a few short wars, rebellions, revolutions, and civil wars after the 1815 end of the Napoleonic Wars, Europe was at relative peace with itself for 97 years. Then came the Italo-Turkish and Balkan Wars, and then the First World War. The maps changed again, shifting the balance of European power. Why peace for almost a century? European powers already had their colonies around the world but saw economic and territorial opportunities in Africa and South America, easy places to handle. War concentrations were focused on Africa.

European powers were always involved in wars somewhere on Earth. Now, since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the worry is about Russia’s future military intentions. But fixing things in Europe is never simple. Consider Germany, as an example of what one country can do with unnecessary military might. Germany’s military budget now ranks fourth in the world, and, because of its fear of Russia, its military buildup is destined to make it again the power that it once was. But military dominance is always questionable with foreign policy approaches linked to shifts in governments. Europe has a challenging history of wariness and distrust of its neighbors, especially those with massive military control. Germany sees itself as a defense barrier against Russian aggression, but will it defend Poland, or any of the Baltic states? It might be thinking of itself, but what about France? And what could happen if the right-wing party Alternative for Germany (AfD), a rising party, gets to pull the strings of government? Massive funding that is now happening could bring Germany to the itching-pleasures of reviving the greatness of Germany, just like Russia’s dream of bringing back the puppet-governed states that were under control of the Soviet Union?

The Iran War connects to Europe’s future

First, know that the American people do not buy the U.S. entanglement in a war with Iran, so Trump is in trouble, not knowing how to end his war. With the Strait of Hormuz controlled by Iran, any attempt at a full withdrawal would be almost impossible. Putin is quite happy with the U.S. problem, giving him far more hope of selling his oil and having the Iran news as a distraction from the war in Ukraine. Besides, though Iran is a Russian ally, he is also happy because it excuses his invasion of Ukraine.

Trump’s whimsical moves are to first blow things up and later fix whatever was destroyed.

Trump’s whimsical moves are to first blow things up and later fix whatever was destroyed. His conflict with Iran is the prime pattern, but there are other examples, starting with the East Wing of the White House, that elevates the wrecking ball to the metaphorical marks of his many crumbles. Who knows what will be his next now, after so many other wreckages—the Kennedy Center, Trump University (a fraudulent for-profit real estate training program), his charity foundation, the (almost impossible) bankruptcy of his own casino, and potentially the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)? Worst of all is his reckless withdrawing from the 2016 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or the Iran nuclear deal involving the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in surveilling nuclear intentions. The IAEA confirmed that Iran had made all the necessary changes to its nuclear program and gave the IAEA the access necessary for verification. He is bringing down his party, his presidency, and the livelihood of almost all Americans, and perhaps billions of others living far away from the U.S.

— Rep. Madeleine Dean

The Middle East is not yet fully broken; rather, it is splintered. Trump’s eyes are on the territories that could deliver either oil or prime land for profitable real estate. For that, he will blow up whatever he needs to corruptly bring in those wrecking balls for glitzy new hotel investments to line his, his children’s, and his friends’ pockets. For that, he put us on a track coming through an inflection point with no alternative but world economic decline, hunger, destruction, and death for many people in almost every country.

Like Trump’s foolishly chosen war with Iran, Russia’s Special Military Operation—or whatever Putin calls it—locked in the stew it initiated, will not end well for Europe. With more oil to sell, Russia will use its new oil money, along with whatever Trump permits in return, to get out of its war with Iran and ignore the war in Ukraine. We know nothing about Trump’s clandestine telephone call to Putin, the one without available transcripts, the one where he ordered aides out of his Mar-a-Lago office to make a deal with Putin. Intending to destabilize the West, Putin played Trump and, soon after, Trump threatened Greenland at the risk of ending the transatlantic alliance, attacked Iran, and weakened Western Europe, a continent in need of oil and security.

—Samuel Charap and Hiski Haukkala ^[4]

Iran: “Dismantled” and “Neutered”?

Iran is a terrorist organization that must be stopped by conciliatory means, such as diplomatic generosity or a treaty. Trump has said that his war had “neutered” Iran’s leadership, air force, and navy, and “totally dismantled” its command structure. There is no denying, however, that Iran’s defense strategy will be tough to break. We should not think of Iran as a neutered, totally dismantled state, because the risks are too high when leadership and armaments are spread through entanglements cleverly built to confuse foreign intelligence. That, and the eventual nuclear risk in the region, is why General Wesley Clark, who served as the Supreme Allied Commander of NATO from 1997 to 2000, said, “A unilateral halt would leave the United States as the loser, unable to accomplish its objectives. That would undercut U.S. deterrence in Asia and Europe.” ^[5] Trump is looking for a halt but, once a war is started without a view of how it will go beyond four or five moves ahead, the battle relentlessly continues without tight control.

Let’s remember, Iran was an empire in the 16th century, that, even then, controlled the Strait of Hormuz. Over the centuries, that territory has seen many more wars than we have; the Persians knew how to defend themselves, just as Iranians know now that they will always have the Straits as their best deterrent. Remember, the Strait was controlled by Persia as part of a toll-controlled East-West maritime trade route for mostly spices and silk. Iran embraces the history of having a natural eye-of-a-needle waterway separating the Persian Gulf from the Gulf of Oman. ^[6]

As the lies continue

However!!! As I wrote in my previous article, Trump, who ignores history, is already declaring victory—supported by sketchy fragile agreements of ceasefires for a war he started, and that war will continue for a long, long time. Nobody questions the courage and smartness of the U.S., and those who are on the front lines of war. There is no denying that the U.S. military is the best and strongest in the world, guided by an ambitious misguided doctrine of peace through strength. But Trump is a person who feels emboldened by every success until something goes wrong. So, now is the time we should fear most, when there is no way out, because retaliation doesn’t give excuses, but badgers the beast of war to take revenge. Emboldened, and frightened by the boondoggle he created, he will again threaten to bomb Iran “back to the Stone Ages, where they belong,” as he shuns international law with brazen openness of plans to destroy Iran’s power plants and bridges.

— Donald Trump on Truth Social on Easter Weekend

In response to Trump, Mizan, an Iranian news outlet, wrote that “Iran’s steadfastness and resistance have driven Trump to the brink of madness.” Is it madness of revenge? We are about to see how revenge works between Trump’s ultimatums to end Iran’s grip over the Strait of Hormuz and the critical edge of ending an economically destabilizing situation, not just in the Middle East, but also in almost every continent.

As early as the twelfth day of the war, on March 11, 2026, he said at a rally in Kentucky, “Let me say, we’ve won.” Then, nine days later, he said, “I think we’ve won.” Four days after that, he said, “We’ve won this war. The war has been won.” A day later, he said, “We are winning so big.” On the last day of March, in his address to the nation, he said that his only goal was to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, a goal that was achieved, yet the war could end in “two or three more weeks.” Now he is demanding the opening of the Strait. Hmm…, he wants to declare victory, mixing fiction with reality. He will say the words with wishful conviction in his way of fooling himself, believing that Americans will take his words truthfully. “All the while, an almost joyous attitude about inflicting suffering persists despite its negative impact on the United States’ long-term interests.” ^[8]

This war has bigger consequences than just disrupting the geopolitical structure of the Middle East. Even with a locked-up ceasefire, Europe will also suffer multiple levels of consequences. His fluctuations and resistances between getting out and staying in have gotten worse in the second month of his war, possibly because of a misunderstanding of Iran’s ideology and the upcoming chaotic consequences. He threatened to attack civilian infrastructure, target people, and ignore international law, saying, “I am blowing up everything over there,” through a revolting post insisting that the Strait of Hormuz must be opened immediately, or else he would bomb Iran into the Stone Age—a foolish threat, since the Strait has been and will always be Iran’s wall of defense.  And here is the intelligence that Trump still does not understand. Unlike most militaries, Iran’s is not controlled by a central command, so decisions in Iran are controlled only by local commanders with revolutionary ideals. As one wing accepts a withdrawal, another does not. With no central regime, there cannot be a full regime change. He should have known that, and yet regime change was one of his major objectives. Iranians who were once protesters against the regime showed anger against the U.S., martyring themselves as human shields at bridges and “power plants across Iran in response to President Trump’s threats.” ^[9] He is in the kind of trouble that makes an idiot a madman. And we are stuck with him. So, what will be the result? By his wistfulness, he might end a war that could kill and maim thousands of innocent people, and create millions of weaponized angry and starving people, at an enormous cost, both financially and humanly. The hope is that America will offer to rebuild the civilization that it destroyed, though with this administration in power, that will not happen, because the emboldened president, backed by lobbying arms dealers, will be looking for other lands to destroy. Iran will continue to be what it has been for more than half a century, a revolutionary martyrdom that will fight for its existence.

When good things fracture, the bad enters slowly, then suddenly

If Germany, or any one country, dominates others with Trumpian-type harassment under a diminished, if not broken, NATO, what then? At this moment, we might feel uncomfortable with suggesting that Germany will turn far-right. It’s not likely to turn Nazi anytime soon, but we are seeing signs of Alternative for Germany (AfD), a far-right populist, nationalist party established in 2013, rising in the polls, and the largest opposition party in the Bundestag, the federal parliament of Germany. ^[10] It is, after all, a radical antisemitic, xenophobic, anti-EU, anti-NATO, and anti-American party promoting Holocaust denial. Further than that, several members in office have described Germany’s Nazi era a “speck of bird poop” in a long history, and a “guilt cult.” ^[11] “I find it quite disturbing,” Alice Weidel, a co-head of the party, said, “when the Holocaust is politically instrumentalized,” adding that remembrance should stand above “day-to-day politics.” Now, none of those expressions bring back Nazi policies, but they sure do bring back Nazi indoctrination. And we have seen these propaganda slips that boom into policies that are difficult to dismiss – for example, Holocaust denial and revanchist claims about the territory of neighboring countries.

It’s not only Germany. European far-right anti-global nationalization is spreading in Austria, Italy, the Netherlands, Hungary, Slovakia, and Belarus. But none of those countries influence or dominate Europe the way Germany does. They all have their immigration problems, and they use those issues to pass on narratives that claim that immigrants are taking jobs away from citizens. But that is just a pretense for gaining power. Once in office, or leadership, watch out for policies that bring back old times.

I hope I am wrong

I worry about the possibility of a mighty AfD, that could soon control Germany in ways we have not seen since 1945, with the power to return, not to a renewed Holocaust but rather to conflicts and tensions that could again explode the whole European Union with bombs that are much more lethal than ever.

Only Germany is capable of a military buildup that could deter Russia from its hopeful expansion.

As the U.S. shortens its attention and resource commitments to Europe, the continent is in danger of a wave of political swings to the far right, and Russia encroaching on whatever territory or concessions it can achieve from the West. Only Germany is capable of a military buildup that could deter Russia from its hopeful expansion. As Liana Fix, a Senior Fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote in her recent Foreign Affairs article, “German rearmament could very well yield a Europe that is more divided, mistrustful, and weaker—exactly the opposite of what Berlin now hopes to achieve.” ^[12]

Think about Europe’s potential future, as Fix wrote, “For many, it is hard to understand why Germany’s rearmament could lead to competition and instability in Europe. All Europeans are familiar, of course, with the country’s militaristic history.” ^[13] Fix is not suggesting another European war, but rather a caution in Germany’s rearmament that could divide Europe into a rivalry “that never really disappeared.”

Mathematics does not have loopholes in its logic coming from its exact symbolic language. So, as a mathematician and scholar of war, I worry about loopholes that enable EU countries to have national military buildups. If you read the archives of my TWFR column, the word “loophole” appears frequently when I present wars that pass through the needle head of legality.

Europe is facing the challenge of anti-immigration forces everywhere, including the UK, where Reform UK, a populist, radical-right-wing party, is gaining ground in local elections. We also see radical-right parties gaining strong showings in seven other European countries: Croatia, the Czech Republic, Finland, France, Hungary, the Netherlands, and Slovakia, though none are as extremist as the AfD. With so many populist and nationalist parties, the European Union could become imbalanced, with arguments from one country to the next facing problems of defense and geopolitical design.

Breaking news comes in, as always with Trump: On April 24th, a leaked U.S. Department of Defense email surfaced through the Reuters news agency, presenting potential measures against NATO for Europe’s insufficient support for Trump’s war on Iran. Spain and the United Kingdom are said to be punishingly suspended for failing to support U.S. operations in the war with Iran. ^[14]

As far back as his first term in office, Trump was hoping to abandon the NATO alliance.  In his second term, after his discontent in not being able to take over Greenland, and now not being able to end his new war with Iran, he has put himself in the awkward position regarding NATO of forcing European leaders into a confusing struggle to understand the future of the alliance, claiming, while “NATO is there, of course, to protect the Europeans, but also to protect the United States.” Now, since the U.S.’s allies refused to join the U.S. and Israel, he is trapped in a war that he alone wishes he had never started.

Of course, he is a child who enjoys destruction and hounding, thinking that one can build from destruction and force people to accept his way. “It all began with, if you want to know the truth, Greenland,” Trump said in a tantrum-like outburst with frustration over the Strait of Hormuz, and pointing to Europe’s lack of support for his war. “We want Greenland. They don’t want to give it to us. And I said, ‘bye-bye’”. If that’s the reason for a NATO eruption, someone will be blamed—not him. ^[15] So much for the ambitious notion of peace through strength.

About the Author

Joseph Mazur is an Emeritus Professor of Mathematics at Emerson College’s Marlboro Institute for Liberal Arts & Interdisciplinary Studies. He is a recipient of fellowships from the Guggenheim, Bogliasco, and Rockefeller Foundations, and the author of eight acclaimed popular nonfiction books. His latest book is The Clock Mirage: Our Myth of Measured Time (Yale).

Notes

^[1] https://www.theatlantic.com/daily-dish/archive/2009/09/margaret-thatcher-secret-defender-of-soviet-security/196685/

^[2] https://historicalatlas.com/

^[3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUixvHFT224&list=PLDIVi-vBsOEzfycWr6xFEQOVActVqx-xD

^[4] https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/europes-next-war-charap-haukkala

^[5] https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2026/03/18/iran-war-end-us-israel-air-strikes/89182344007/

^[6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Qizilbash_troops_of_Shah_Ismail_I._Circa_1647_painting,_Chehel_Sotoun.jpg

^{[7] https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Austronesian_maritime_trade_network_in_the_Indian_Ocean.png}

^[8] https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/06/trump-hegseth-iran-venezuela-cuba-bombing-violence-terror/

^[9] https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04/07/world/iran-war-trump-news?nl=breaking-news&segment_id=217857

^[10] https://www.google.com/books/edition/The_Politics_of_Negative_Emotions/10i7EAAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&pg=PA172&printsec=frontcover

^[11] https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-election-afd-alice-weidel-doubles-down-holocaust-comments/#:~:text=The%20host%20also%20pushed%20Weidel,Hitler%20Alice%20Weidel%20Elon%20Musk

^[12] https://www.foreignaffairs.com/germany/europes-next-hegemon-liana-fix#:~:text=Foch’s%20comments%20proved%20prescient.,it%20is%20far%20too%20weak.

^[13] https://www.foreignaffairs.com/germany/europes-next-hegemon-liana-fix

^[14] https://www.reuters.com/world/pentagon-email-floats-suspending-spain-nato-other-steps-over-iran-rift-source-2026-04-24/

^[15] https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-nato-rage-greenland/

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