Newly-elected Congress Legislature Party (CLP) leader D. K. Shivakumar (right) with former chief minister Siddaramaiah, Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi, and Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge, in Delhi.
| Photo Credit: Special Arrangement
Though elevation of Congress leader D.K. Shivakumar as Chief Minister of Karnataka might on the surface essentially seem like honouring a reported power-sharing agreement as per which he was to take over the mantle after reaching the half-term mark, in reality the Congress high command appears to have made the decision with an eye on the 2028 Assembly and 2029 Lok Sabha polls.
Sources in the Congress point out that even if Siddaramaiah had been allowed to complete the full five-year term, the party would have faced a leadership crisis at the end of his term in 2028, as he would have been 80 by then, and would not have been in a position to lead the party in the next polls. Elevating the 64-year-old Mr. Shivakumar now would help in empowering him, and putting him in a better position to lead the party in the 2028 polls.
In Southern States
The Congress, which is in power in Telangana and Kerala besides being in an alliance with the ruling TVK in Tamil Nadu, feels that it has the potential to retain power in Karnataka in 2028. Though Karnataka’s history shows that no ruling party has retained power in the last four decades, the Congress high command feels that the party can break this trend if a ‘go-getter’ leader like Mr. Shivakumar takes over.
By betting on Mr. Shivakumar, who hails from the Vokkaliga community that has a dominant presence in the Old Mysore region, the Congress has clearly indicated that it is looking at consolidating the gains made in 2023 in this region.
The Congress, which has a thumping majority in the 224-member Assembly with 138 MLAs, has won 51 of the 87 seats in the Old Mysore region, including Bengaluru. Though the party’s main support base is being seen as Ahinda (Kannada acronym for Minorities, OBCs and Dalits), the party wants to build a political combination by wooing a chunk of Vokkaliga voters by projecting Mr. Shivakumar as its face for the next Assembly polls.
Gain and loss
Supporters of Mr. Shivakumar argue that the party was able to win a sizeable number of seats from Old Mysore region in 2023 because Mr. Shivakumar too was in the race for the chief ministerial post. But in the subsequent elections to the Lok Sabha in 2024, the Congress could win barely two seats in this region that accounted for a total of 14 MP seats. Mr. Shivakumar’s supporters attribute the loss within a year to Mr. Shivakumar not being in the leadership post.
They argue that going to the next Assembly polls without declaring Mr. Shivakumar as the chief ministerial candidate may not help in making any headway in the Vokkaliga-dominated Old Mysore region. The Congress high command too appears to have endorsed this argument going by the sequence of events leading to selection of Mr. Shivakumar for the chief ministerial post.
Path of friction
But this strategy is bound to put Mr. Shivakumar in a path of friction with the Janata Dal (S), and particularly its State president and Union Minister H. D. Kumaraswamy, as his political strength too mainly comes from this region. In the coming days, a tough and intense political battle is expected to unfold in the region between Mr. Shivakumar and Mr. Kumaraswamy, as the political fate of both the leaders depend on their hold and performance in this region. The signs of such a political battle have already emerged in the last six months.
Meanwhile, Congress sources insisted that they had not ignored the value of Mr. Siddaramaiah while effecting a change in guard. “Mr. Siddaramaiah is a towering personality with a mass political base. But given his old age and the present political circumstances, the party thinks that Mr. Shivakumar will be more advantageous to the party in the long term. Mr. Siddaramaiah’s exit should not be seen as drifting away from Ahinda vote base, as the party would not change its policy or programmes towards them,” said a Congress leader. “The party would only make efforts to add a chunk of Vokkaliga votes to Ahinda,” he noted.
Published – June 03, 2026 11:54 am IST
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