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US-Iran War: A fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran is showing signs of stress, with Tehran signalling possible retaliation against Israel over alleged violations. Security sources cited by Al Jazeera indicate Iran is considering punitive measures, while state-linked media warn the agreement could unravel if Israeli strikes persist. Reports of heightened military activity, including air defence activation in Tehran and a downed Israeli drone, have further raised tensions, alongside concerns that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could threaten global energy flows.
Ceasefire Under Pressure
Iranian officials appear increasingly dissatisfied with the current ceasefire framework, accusing Israel of breaching its terms. The semi-official Tasnim news agency has suggested Tehran may withdraw entirely if hostilities continue. This signals a potential escalation risk at a time when diplomatic channels remain active but fragile.
Military Signals Intensify
Iranian media report that air defence systems were activated in Tehran, indicating heightened alert levels in the capital. Separately, claims have emerged that an Israeli drone was shot down in Fars province, though independent verification remains limited.
Trump Distances Lebanon
US President Donald Trump has clarified that Lebanon is not part of the current ceasefire arrangement. Speaking to a White House correspondent, Trump described Israeli actions in Lebanon as a “separate skirmish”, linking the exclusion to the presence of Hezbollah. He added that the group would be “taken care of”, reinforcing Washington’s narrower interpretation of the agreement.
Confusion Over Ceasefire Terms
Trump also criticised what he described as misleading claims surrounding the US-Iran deal. In a social media post, he dismissed unauthorised documents and narratives as the work of “fraudsters” and “charlatans”. He stressed that only a defined set of undisclosed “points” form the basis of the ceasefire, and these would be discussed privately during negotiations.
IRGC Issues Warning
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has condemned Israeli actions in Lebanon, describing them as a “brutal massacre in Beirut”. In a strongly worded statement carried by Tasnim, the IRGC warned that continued aggression against Lebanon would provoke a “regretful response” against Israel and its regional interests.
Hormuz Concerns Rise
Tensions are also spilling into economic and strategic domains. Iranian-linked reporting has raised the possibility of disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil supplies. Gulf Arab states have expressed alarm over ambiguity in the ceasefire terms regarding the strait’s status.
Members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have reportedly rejected any attempt to alter the status quo in the Strait of Hormuz, including the imposition of tolls on vessels. With a significant share of the world’s oil and gas shipments passing through the corridor, any disruption could have immediate global repercussions.
Middle East conflict: Fragile Ceasefire Raises Doubts as Regional Tensions Persist
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